Public Opinion & The Infrastructure Agenda
Shifting Paradigm Context The system is broken. America is becoming increasingly polarized. Both parties use framing to push their problems. Why? There are increased immigration pressures with more...
View ArticlePublic Opinion’s Agenda and Trump: Economic Growth, Healthcare, Immigration,...
The Trump administration will face a public agenda which is mostly domestic in focus. The American public’s number one priority is jobs and the economy. Terrorism as a concern comes in second and is...
View ArticleAttitudes Toward Trade
Americans are most focused on domestic issues: in particular, economy and jobs. A very strong majority of Americans see international trade as an important policy focus. However, they do have serious...
View ArticleWidespread Pessimism or Glimmers of Hope? US Consumer Confidence After the...
The 2016 US presidential election can be characterized by widespread discontent with the status quo. Indeed, a supermajority of Americans see the system as broken. And strong majorities across party...
View ArticlePublic Opinion on Healthcare
Healthcare has jumped as a priority with Americans over the last few months as salience on the issue has increased. Since the implementation of ACA and related programs, the insurance non-coverage rate...
View ArticleTax Reform: It Is Not a Slam Dunk
This Wednesday President Trump will announce his tax reform plan. There is much speculation around both its tone and its specificity. At first blush, tax reform may appear to be pretty...
View ArticleTrump at the Precipice: The 39-Point Tipping Point
The scandals swirling around President Trump seem to have no end and have undoubtedly taken their toll. Both Democrats and pundits have already begun talking about impeachment, although these...
View ArticleDACA is About Being a ‘Real American’
This article was originally published on The Hill. President Trump’s termination of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, at first blush, flies in the face of popular will. If...
View ArticlePublic Opinion & the Brazil Infrastructure Agenda
In Ipsos’ first annual global poll around infrastructure, Brazilians showed more discontent with their national infrastructure than did citizens of any of the 27 other countries surveyed – and by a...
View ArticleNFL Boycott: Public Opinion & Fake Social Media Accounts
Public opinion is split on the fight between President Trump and the NFL, with just over one-third approving of the NFL’s response. However, the majority of Americans do not believe players should be...
View ArticleA Game of Inches #1: Obama’s Lukewarm Faithful
The Obama-Romney match up is shaping up to be a nail biter. Our most recent Reuters-Ipsos poll has them in a statistical deadheat; other polls show a similar narrowing. Part of this trend is without a...
View ArticleGame of Inches #2 — Likely Independent Voters: Who they are? And what do they...
(For the first part of this series, click here) The US presidential election in November will be a close one. Many poll watchers, myself included, see this one as a nail bitter which will be won at...
View ArticleStorm Clouds on the BRIC Horizon: Falling consumer optimism in Brazil,...
The economic meltdown of late 2008 and early 2009, while global in nature, most squarely affected Europe, the United States, and more generally the industrialized world. In many of these places,...
View ArticleChávez, Variable Polls, and Misiones: Reflections on the Venezuelan...
On 7 October 2012, Venezuelans showed up to cast their vote for president on Election Day with an unprecedented sign of voter enthusiasm pushing final turnout up over 80%. This race pitted Hugo Rafael...
View ArticleAmerican Pragmatism or American Radicalism?
Public Opinion Support for a ‘Mixed’ Deficit Reduction Solution Washington is presently in crisis mode as time is running out before automatic tax increases and spending cuts go into effect in early...
View ArticleJust more about Jobs, Jobs, Jobs or Setting the stage for Long-Term Economic...
Today, February 12th 2013, President Obama will give the 227th State of the Union address and the 5th of his presidency. This specific speech will have special significance because it is the first of...
View ArticleOwning the “Change” Agenda: The 2013 Italian parliamentary elections
On February 24th and 25th, Italy will hold a general election which will produce a new Prime Minister. This occurs against the backdrop of a dismal economy where over the last 10 years the GDP did not...
View ArticleTeetering on the edge: The 2013 Kenyan Presidential election
Today, Keynans will vote for a new president. The whole world is watching as well. Why? The last Kenyan presidential election in 2007 lead to widespread violence as supporters of Raila Odinga...
View ArticleStorm clouds on the Brazilian horizon? President Dilma’s poll numbers and her...
In 2010, Dilma Rouseff, Lula’s handpicked successor, won easily in the second round run-off election against Jose Serra, the opposition candidate (Dilma 56% of vote versus 44% Serra). At the time,...
View ArticleIncumbency is still King: Brazil’s Dilma is still the favorite in 2014, even...
The Brazilian presidential election is more than a year away. But already pundits and the odds-makers are assessing President Dilma’s chances of being reelected. For many, dark clouds are on her...
View ArticleAll Presidents have their Waterloo: Reflections on Obama’s Declining Approval...
The Obama administration is definitely in a funk. Polls of all stripes have shown a strong decline in his approval ratings. Indeed, Pollster.com shows that from Obama’s inauguration in late January...
View ArticleMeet Clifford Young | President, US Public Affairs
Get to know Clifford Young, President, US Public Affairs as he discusses how pollsters are born rather than made, and why he finds managing and solving complex research puzzles involving public policy...
View ArticleIncumbency is King! Political Fundamentals Put Dems and Clinton’s Odds at...
Polls, pundits and even bookmakers have already elected President Hillary Clinton. However, at this point in the Game of Oval Office Thrones, models are better oracles than polls – and the models do...
View ArticleWhat an Actual Trump Voter Looks Like
This post, written by Cliff Young and Julia Clark, originally appeared in The Daily Beast. We thought Trump was just a summer fling for the GOP, but it’s becoming increasingly more likely that some...
View ArticleElection Poll Accuracy Over Time
Election polls especially suffer from two specific types of measurement error: (1) election salience among voters at the time of the poll and (2) strategic voting decisions at the time of the vote...
View ArticleForget the debate: Two simple reasons a Republican will likely win in 2016
The following article by Clifford Young and Julia Clark originally appeared in Reuters:...
View ArticleTrump and Sanders: Two Sides of the Same Coin
Elections are cyclical: “more of the same v. throw the bums out” Longer-term macro trends: wage stagnation and inequality Widespread belief that Middle Class and America’s best days behind it...
View ArticleWhy Donald Trump has a 90 percent chance of winning the Republican nomination
The following article by Clifford Young and Chris Jackson originally appeared on the Reuters blog:...
View ArticleRepublicans seen as stronger on Terrorism: Impact of Brussels-like events on...
Electorally speaking, terrorist attacks like the one in Brussels are more likely to benefit Republicans than Democrats. Republicans historically have been seen as more credible on “terrorism” and...
View ArticleTrump’s “America First” in Global Context: Global Resonance of Anti-Immigrant...
Trump has been winning on his “Make America Great” appeal His message has a strong “American-First” and “Anti-Immigrant” undertone which resonates with the Republican base. How does this rhetoric play...
View ArticleTrump, It’s the Men Stupid!?: The Great March Implosion
Over the last week, Trump’s numbers across the board have tanked: fav scores, likability, primary vote share, general election vote share, etc. This implosion has been attributed (and rightly so) to...
View ArticleTrump’s “America First” in Historical Context: Historical Resonance of...
Trump has been winning on his “Make America Great Again” appeal. His message has a strong “American-First” and “Nativist” undertone which resonates. How has this rhetoric played out over time? Is it...
View Article“Taking America Back”: Reasons and Meaning
Trump has forcefully pushed a strong “American Exceptionalism” rejuvenation narrative typified by his campaign slogan— “MAKE America Great Again!” Often Trump operationalizes this slogan in speeches...
View ArticleIt’s Nativism: Explaining the Drivers of Trump’s Popular Support
Introduction A year ago who would have believed it—Trump the presumptive nominee for the Republican party! For the longest time, most expected Trump would implode. But to the prognosticators chagrin...
View ArticleThe Unlikable Duo: Trump and Clinton
The present consensus among pundits is that Trump has lost serious momentum since shoring up the minimum number of delegates in early May. Is there any truth to this? The short answer is yes. Trump...
View ArticleThe Rationale Behind the Redesign of the Reuters/Ipsos Presidential Ballot...
Since early June, our Reuters/Ipsos horse race ballot question (Clinton versus Trump) has shown a larger spread (Clinton-Trump) than the average of the market. Specifically, over this time our poll...
View ArticleThird Parties and Their Effect: Talking Points for the Diane Rehm Show
Party Identification Long-term decline in identification with either party: Democrats and Republicans Increase in identification as Independent 2016 seems to have frayed these party bonds even more:...
View ArticleDoes Clinton’s 8-Point Lead Look Softer Than at First Blush? Clinton v. Trump...
Only 83 days until Election Day! It has been a rough couple of weeks for Trump and a correspondingly good few for Clinton. She leads Trump by an average of about 8 points, looking across all the...
View ArticleEnergizing the Base: Trump’s Immigration Policy and Its Effect
Over the last week or so the polls have narrowed: where Clinton had an 8-point lead over Trump, they are now in a near dead heat. The question, of course, is why? The reasons, in my mind, are diverse...
View ArticleIpsos/Diane Rehm Show Study of Millennials
The data from the Ipsos/NPR Study of Millennials was released today. For full analysis, please visit Ipsos News and Polls. Younger voters, or Millennials (ages 18-34), are distinct from their older...
View ArticleMuch ado about nothing: Obama will be president, again, in 2013
Many of us have watched transfixed as the Republican Party participates in a ‘no holds barred’ fratricide primary season. The heir apparent—Mitt Romney—is a weak front runner, at best, but has taken...
View ArticleWhat is Obama’s Headache in 2013? A Republican Controlled Congress
As I discussed in my previous post (Much Ado About Nothing), excluding some random event or intervention from a higher power, Obama will be the president in 2013. This, of course, begs the next...
View ArticleSpring Cleaning: Ipsos Polling in the Ohio and Florida Republican Primaries
I wanted to share a brief note on some polling which predates this blog. Ipsos, together with its media partner Thomson Reuters, conducted online polls in both the Florida and Ohio Republican...
View ArticleHealthcare Reform Revisited: the Devil is in the Details
Several weeks ago the Supreme Court reviewed part of President Obama’s 2010 healthcare reform (the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act). Specifically, they examined the “individual mandate” that...
View ArticleReflection on the French Presidential Election: “Change” the graveyard of...
I have been meaning to comment on the French presidential elections for some time. I missed my chance during the first round realized on 22 April 2012 so will seize the opportunity before the second...
View ArticleA tale of two bases: the 2012 Republican primaries in perspective
The Republican primary season is all but over. Romney is on his way to being the nominee and will hawk his wares against Obama in the general elections in November. In the end, Republicans went with...
View ArticleIs President Obama up or down?: The effect of question wording on levels of...
Presidential approval ratings are the most ubiquitous polling data out there. Every pollster worth their salt will have some derivation of the standard question—do you approve or disapprove of the way...
View ArticleWisconsin is all noise: Obama will still win in November
The sitting Republican Governor of Wisconsin Scott Walker beat the Democratic challenger Tom Barrett 53% to 46% yesterday in a recall election. Many pundits had touted Wisconsin as a political...
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